Analysis

The fear factor is now hurting Trump

Significantly more swing-state voters view Trump as a “threat to the country” than Harris. It wasn’t always thus.

By Aaron BlakeSeptember 4, 2024
Analysis

Biden is suddenly seeing his best polls in years

Precisely why is a valid question, and there are a number of possibilities. But if it holds up, it could undercut a key Trump campaign strategy.

By Aaron BlakeSeptember 3, 2024
Analysis

The 2 key states that could decide the 2024 election

Georgia and Pennsylvania are emerging as the central battlegrounds, for now. A look at the electoral college math shows why.

By Aaron BlakeSeptember 3, 2024
Analysis

3 takeaways from Kamala Harris and Tim Walz’s first major interview

Harris addressed her changed positions obliquely and walked a very fine line on trying to run as a “change” candidate.

By Aaron BlakeAugust 29, 2024
Analysis

RFK Jr. is stuck on 3 swing-state ballots. That’s a headache for Trump.

North Carolina joins Michigan and Wisconsin in saying they can’t remove Kennedy’s name — and thickening the 2024 plot.

By Aaron BlakeAugust 29, 2024
Analysis

Democratic enthusiasm is at Obama 2008 levels. Here’s why.

In fact, polls suggest Democrats might even be more “fired up” and “ready to go” vote for Vice President Kamala Harris.

By Aaron BlakeAugust 29, 2024
Analysis

Did Trump’s campaign break the law at Arlington National Cemetery?

The cemetery and some experts suggest it was; here’s what Trump did, and what the law says.

By Aaron BlakeAugust 28, 2024
Analysis

Trump’s cemetery clash ups the ante on politicizing military, memorials

Trump has flouted the dividing line between politics and the military before. Even in that context, though, this is different.

By Aaron BlakeAugust 28, 2024
Analysis

Why Biden isn’t dragging down Harris

The GOP is apoplectic that Biden’s liabilities on the border, the economy and the Afghanistan withdrawal aren’t hurting her more. It might be because strong majorities of Americans don’t think she played a central role.

By Aaron BlakeAugust 27, 2024
Analysis

RFK Jr.’s exit pushes the 2024 spoiler effect to the left

Third-party and independent candidates are expected to get relatively small numbers of votes. But they’re likely to come at Vice President Kamala Harris’s expense.

By Aaron BlakeAugust 26, 2024
Analysis

Donald Trump is not exactly Nostradamus

Trump increasingly paints a hellscape of life under Kamala Harris. He did the same with Biden — saying many of the same things, in fact — and his predictions were flat wrong.

By Aaron BlakeAugust 26, 2024
Analysis

RFK Jr. suspends his campaign — with an appropriately bizarre theory

Robert F. Kennedy Jr. insisted he can somehow still be elected president. Let’s count the holes in his reasoning.

By Aaron BlakeAugust 23, 2024
Analysis

‘Tampon Tim’ is looking more like Teflon Tim

Why Republicans’ efforts to ding Democratic VP nominee Tim Walz — efforts based on at least some legitimate material — have fallen flat.

By Aaron BlakeAugust 22, 2024
Analysis

RFK Jr.’s running mate drops the pretense about helping Trump

Nicole Shanahan offered some surprisingly unvarnished comments that played into Democrats’ long-standing allegations.

By Aaron BlakeAugust 20, 2024
Analysis

Harris one-ups Trump on populist plays

Critics have called it a gimmick and even pandering. But if it’s a pander, it would appear to be an effective one.

By Aaron BlakeAugust 19, 2024
Analysis

How much Kamala Harris could expand the map

A look at the Democratic presidential candidate’s hopes in North Carolina and Florida.

By Aaron BlakeAugust 17, 2024
Analysis

5 striking new poll numbers amid Harris’s rise

What we’ve learned about enthusiasm, running mates and down-ballot races in recent days.

By Aaron BlakeAugust 15, 2024
Analysis

Republicans practically beg Trump to change it up. He’s not listening.

Calls for more policy, less crowd-size talk and fewer insults have gone unheeded. Donald Trump has signaled he won’t change — or can’t.

By Aaron BlakeAugust 15, 2024
Analysis

Harris cuts Trump’s advantages on economy, immigration

Harris runs better than Biden on other issues, too — significantly outpacing the president and expanding Democrats’ edge on abortion.

By Aaron BlakeAugust 14, 2024
Analysis

Tim Walz has good numbers so far, despite GOP attacks

It’s early, but polls show Kamala Harris’s running mate, Tim Walz, does well among independents and moderates — a notable contrast to JD Vance.

By Aaron BlakeAugust 13, 2024