Inflation was higher in metros with greater 2020 Trump support

Metros that had more votes for Trump in 2020 have experienced higher inflation since then. Here’s why and what that means for this election.

5 min
Vice President Kamala Harris, former president Donald Trump, and city skylines.
(Illustration by Elena Lacey/The Washington Post; TWP; iStock)

Inflation is a top issue for Americans this election. It’s also been worse in redder metros, according to a Washington Post analysis of Bureau of Labor Statistics data.

Areas with greater support for Trump in 2020 have faced higher inflation since then among the 21 metropolitan areas — major cities and their outlying suburbs — where BLS tracks price data. The trend highlights a persistent challenge for Democratic candidates this fall.

The most drastic price growth was seen in metros along the Sun Belt, where the Harris campaign has opened a new path to electoral college victory.

Inflation reached historic highs nationwide over the last four years as the pandemic and foreign conflict threw wrenches into the supply chain, as well as housing and labor markets. Overall, prices rose by 20 percent between January 2021 and June 2024, compared to 4.6 percent during the corresponding period of 2017 to 2020. But inflation was particularly pronounced in several swing states.

Large metros tend to be a strong Democratic voter base and are especially key to wins in swing states. The Phoenix and Atlanta regions made up the majority of 2020 votes in their states and were essential to flipping their states blue for the first time in decades. Both were early campaign stops for Vice President Kamala Harris and have been visited by former president Donald Trump and Sen. JD Vance (Ohio).

In the last four years, the Phoenix and Atlanta metro areas have also faced some of the highest inflation in the country.

Las Vegas is also critical, with nearly 70 percent of the 2020 vote in Nevada coming from the metro area. While BLS does not publish inflation data for Las Vegas, other measures show that the area is facing a housing-cost crisis.

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