There’s a new coach, new quarterback and new general manager in Washington, all of whom have contributed to a renewed sense of optimism after the Commanders’ miserable 4-13 season in 2023. A favorable schedule, at least on paper, could set Jayden Daniels, Dan Quinn and Adam Peters up for success in their first year together, though success at this stage of the team’s rebuild might mean six or seven wins.
By Scott Allen
After simulating the Commanders’ season 1,000 times with point spreads available as of Wednesday, The Washington Post’s Neil Greenberg projects the team’s floor as four wins and its ceiling as 10 wins. Washington, which opens the season 28th in Mark Maske’s power rankings, is most likely to finish 8-9, according to the simulation. The franchise hasn’t won at least 10 games since 2012, when another rookie quarterback and No. 2 overall pick (Robert Griffin III) announced his presence with a Week 1 road win against an NFC South foe. Can Daniels follow a similar script, starting with Sunday’s opener in Tampa?
Don’t count on a double-digit win total. Four out of five Post reporters and columnists predict a 7-10 season for Washington, which would be a step in the right direction. Columnist Jerry Brewer predicts the Commanders will finish 8-9, while beat reporter Sam Fortier tabs Daniels as the offensive rookie of the year. (For anyone who likes to dream big, here are five preposterously positive Commanders predictions for 2024.)
Here’s a roundup of how national pundits expect the Commanders to fare this season:
ESPN’s Football Power Index metric gives Washington a 2.7 percent chance to win the NFC East and a 12.5 percent chance to make the playoffs, with 6.7 projected wins. Seth Walder boldly predicts the team will trade Jonathan Allen “for assets to support Daniels in the long term.” Mike Clay ranks the Commanders 30th and projects them to be the league’s third-lowest scoring team.
None of USA Today’s six analysts pick Washington to make the playoffs, but Daniels received two votes for offensive rookie of the year. Projected record: 8-9.
For the fifth straight season, Conor Orr predicted all 272 regular season games. He has Washington finishing 6-11. “This one is going to hurt in December,” Orr writes. “I know it. I can feel it. Jayden Daniels has spent the preseason ripping it up, and we haven’t seen the extent of what is possible from this offense yet, namely how the run and pass games tie in together.” No one on the MMQB staff thinks Washington will make the playoffs, but Mike Sainristil and Daniels each received a vote for defensive and offensive rookie of the year.
John Breech predicts the Commanders finish 7-10 and the Cowboys become the NFC East’s first repeat champion since 2004. Jeff Kerr’s ceiling and floor for Washington is eight and six wins. Five out of six analysts pick the Commanders to finish third in the division, ahead of only the Giants. The lone exception is Ryan Wilson, who has Washington winning the East. The Commanders check in at No. 26 in Pete Prisco’s Week 1 power rankings. “Jayden Daniels will be the Offensive Rookie of the Year,” Prisco writes. “But they have some other issues that could hold this team back.”
Daniels received six votes for top rookie from a survey of 42 staff members, second only to Bears quarterback Caleb Williams, who was the overwhelming favorite with 31 votes. The Commanders received one vote for most surprising team, and it came from one of the site’s Cowboys writers. “The Commanders only won four games last year,” Jon Machota writes. “I think they could double that win total and maybe compete for the NFC East title if things go poorly for the Eagles and Cowboys.” In a survey of five NFL executives, the Commanders ranked 14th among the 16 NFC teams, though one respondent ranked Washington sixth. Washington is 28th in Josh Kendall’s Week 1 power rankings.
Eric Edholm has the Commanders 26th in his Week 1 power rankings. “There are still a lot of boxes that need checking, and at a few high-priority positions, such as offensive tackle and cornerback,” Edholm writes. “But I think Washington got the biggest position right this offseason with Jayden Daniels, whose scrambling ability can help cover for some of those blocking concerns, though obviously not all.” Cynthia Frelund projects Washington to win 6.4 games, with a ceiling of 7.5 wins and a floor of 5.2 wins.
The Commanders are dead last in Diante Lee’s Week 1 power rankings. “This depth chart makes me ill,” Lee writes. Anthony Dabbundo ranks Washington as the second least likely team to go from worst to first in its division. “My concern about Washington’s ability to win this division is the pairing of Daniels with offensive coordinator Kliff Kingsbury,” Dabbundo writes. “Kingsbury’s offenses when he was the head coach in Arizona never ranked higher than 12th in offensive DVOA, and in his final season there, the Cardinals ranked near the bottom of the league, at 27th.”
Frank Schwab picks Washington as his “biggest surprise” and is the only member of Yahoo’s five-person NFL staff to predict Daniels will win offensive rookie of the year. Charles McDonald is less optimistic about the team’s chances in Quinn’s first year and names the Commanders as the most likely team to earn the No. 1 pick in the 2025 draft.
The Commanders are 21st in Vinnie Iyer’s Week 1 power rankings. “There is enough talent through offseason moves to sneak away with an NFC wild card,” Iyer writes.
Trevor Sikkema boldly predicts the Commanders will finish second in the NFC East. “They’re not necessarily going to make the playoffs, but I am a big Dan Quinn believer,” he writes. Washington is 30th in John Kosko’s Week 1 power rankings, ahead of only the Arizona Cardinals and Carolina Panthers.
Mike Florio is the only PFT analyst who sees Washington making the playoffs. He has the Commanders losing to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in a first-round game, which would be a postseason rematch from January 2021.
