When evaluating any favorite, always be mindful of key numbers. If the point spread is three, you will want either to play the favorite at -2½ or the underdog at +3½, because both options give you the benefit of turning a push into a win in the event of a three-point final margin — which is the most common final margin of victory in the NFL. It is crucial that bettors go line shopping in these cases, to find the best price.
Point spreads of 7 should be played in a similar fashion. If you move off a 7-point spread at -110 odds, you need to find either the favorite at -6½ or the underdog at +7½ at a price of -124 or better (bet $124 to win $100). There have been 114 games with point spreads of -4, -4½, -5 and -5½ over the past three seasons, and just four have ended with a score differential of exactly five or six. In other words, you are probably better off going with an alternate line rather than one of those point spreads. The benefit of an alternate line is acquiring a more lucrative price.
Best bets record in 2023, including playoffs and player props: 33-26
Picks were made against the consensus point spreads as of Wednesday morning; odds that have since changed have been updated in bold type, but picks are locked in at the earlier odds.
Houston Texans (-2½) at Indianapolis Colts
Sunday, 1 p.m. | CBS
Pick: Houston Texans -2½, playable to -2½ -120 (wager $120 to win $100)
Houston had a busy offseason, adding running back Joe Mixon, wide receiver Stefon Diggs, linebacker Azeez Al-Shaair, defensive tackle Folorunso Fatukasi and defensive end Danielle Hunter, earning them the seventh-best roster heading into 2024, per Pro Football Focus. The Colts, meanwhile, rank 22nd, with their biggest weakness being the secondary. That should be good news for the Texans’ rising star quarterback C.J. Stroud, who completed a nice percentage of passes against the Colts in two games last season (50 of 73, 69 percent) for 648 yards, four touchdowns and no interceptions.
Also worth noting: There have been 76 games with similar point spreads for the road team and a comparable over/under total since 2002 (per data from TruMedia), and the favorite has covered in 61 percent of those games. Six of eight road favorites from this group have covered the spread in Week 1.
Minnesota Vikings at New York Giants
Sunday, 1 p.m. | FOX
Pick: Over 20½ points in the first half
This is a clash between two teams that aren’t expected to be very good in 2024, yet the new kickoff rules and the lack of familiarity between non-division rivals should help boost the first-half totals for each squad. For example, over the past three seasons, the average points scored in the first half of a Week 1 game between teams in the same division has been 19.6 points per game, per data from TruMedia. If the teams are not in the same division, that rises to an average of 23 points per contest.
Plus, there is a lot of offensive talent on the field in this matchup. Minnesota lost quarterback Kirk Cousins but they still have a loaded skill-position group in Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison and Aaron Jones. The Giants, meanwhile, drafted explosive wideout Malik Nabers with the No. 6 overall pick. (The Vikings are my pick as 1-point favorites, but it is not a best bet.)
Arizona Cardinals at Buffalo Bills
Sunday, 1 p.m. | CBS
Pick: Bills QB Josh Allen under 253½ passing yards
The Arizona Cardinals, Buffalo’s first opponent, are expected to have the worst secondary and defensive line in the NFL in 2024, per Pro Football Focus. But this isn’t the smash spot you might expect for Allen, who is one of the most prolific passers in the league. (Buffalo is my pick as 5½-point favorites in this game, but it isn’t one of my best bets.)
Arizona had the worst defense last year, too, yet they only allowed over 250 passing yards five times — with a median passing yardage allowed of 203 yards per game. That’s because bad teams get run on more than they get decimated through the air. In fact, teams since 2002 that are between 5- and 7-point road underdogs only allow an average of 238.4 passing yards per game, according to data from TruMedia. Half of the time these same underdogs allowed just 232 passing yards or less.
There is going to be enthusiasm for Allen’s passing yards against such a paltry defense, and this prop has already moved significantly from the open of 241½, so you might be best-served waiting until closer to game day to play this under; I expect the public will continue to bet the over here. I myself will set a budget and bet the under a few times as it moves up, but that is something I would only recommend to a seasoned bettor with a sufficient bankroll.
Picks for the rest of Week 1
The plays above represent our best bets of the week, because our analysis shows their value is the most lucrative compared with what we expect to happen on the field. Below, you will find against-the-spread picks for all of the games on this week’s schedule.
However, trying to pick every game is something of a fool’s errand. The house wins so often partly because bettors try to make too many plays when the odds aren’t in their favor. Keep that in mind when evaluating the remaining games from this week’s slate.
Baltimore Ravens at Kansas City Chiefs (-3)
Thursday, 8:20 p.m. | NBC, Peacock
Pick: Kansas City Chiefs -3
Green Bay Packers at Philadelphia Eagles (-3)
Friday, 8:15 p.m. | NBC, Peacock
Pick: Philadelphia Eagles -3
Pittsburgh Steelers at Atlanta Falcons (-3)
Sunday, 1 p.m. | FOX
Pick: Atlanta Falcons -3
Note: The implied scoring output for these two teams combined — based on point spreads and totals released for all NFL games this summer — is 44 points. The total is currently 40½, piquing my interest in the over.
New England Patriots at Cincinnati Bengals (-9)
Sunday, 1 p.m. | CBS
Pick: New England Patriots +9
Jacksonville Jaguars at Miami Dolphins (-3½)
Sunday, 1 p.m. | CBS
Pick: Jacksonville Jaguars +3½
Carolina Panthers at New Orleans Saints (-4½)
Sunday, 1 p.m. | FOX
Pick: Carolina Panthers +4½
Las Vegas Raiders at Los Angeles Chargers (-3½)
Sunday, 4:05 p.m. | CBS
Pick: Las Vegas Raiders +3½
Denver Broncos at Seattle Seahawks (-6)
Sunday, 4:05 p.m. | CBS
Pick: Seattle Seahawks -6
Dallas Cowboys at Cleveland Browns (-2½)
Sunday, 4:25 p.m. | FOX
Pick: Dallas Cowboys +2½
Washington Commanders at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-3½)
Sunday, 4:25 p.m. | FOX
Pick: Washington Commanders +3½
Los Angeles Rams at Detroit Lions (-3½)
Sunday, 8:20 p.m. | NBC, Peacock
Pick: Los Angeles Rams +3½
New York Jets at San Francisco 49ers (-4)
Monday, 8:20 p.m. | ESPN, ABC, ESPN Plus
Pick: New York Jets +4
